Tokyo 2020 Marathon Preview
Lets be honest, the Marathon is the best Olympic event. It has the mythological beginnings, and since it’s inclusion in the modern Olympic movement it’s provided some of the greatest moments in Olympic history.
The 2020 Marathon has, as is becoming the norm for Olympics in the 21st Century, found itself in some controversy. Upon being awarded the games, fans of the sport were quick to point to Tokyo’s soaring summer temperatures, with suggestions that the race could be at night following the 2019 World Championships Marathon in Doha. Instead the event was moved to Sapporo, on the northern Japanese island of Hokkaido. Temperatures still soar, and humidity will still cloak the athletes, but chances are higher that we see the race run in more acceptable conditions. That said, it’s a championship race with no pacemakers, so it won’t be fast. Here’s a really nice course preview. We’re not going to know how the route will make itself felt on the runners until after the women’s race, but there looks to be some elevation gain and loss in the first third of the race. That said, this course is on the Chicago & London end of the marathon spectrum, away from the Boston’s and New York’s that have a huge impact on the racing.
Below are some of the notable entrants, some with some background for the race. I hope this can give you some information to help enjoy what stands to be an incredible two races on the final weekend of the games! Sorry if I missed your countries’ medal hope or favourite runner, but let me know in the comments!
Womens marathon — Saturday 7th August 07:00 local time
Mens marathon — Sunday 8th August 07:00 local time
Women
Big favourite
Brigid Kosgei (Kenya) 2:14:04 — World record holder, one of two women to ever go sub-2:17 (trivia point for the other in the comments). If she starts the race in her normal form she wins.
The other Kenyans
Ruth Chepngetich (Kenya) 2:17:08–2019 World champion
Peres Jepchirchir (Kenya) 2:17:16 — Half marathon record holder, half marthon world champion.
There’s not really anyone else even in their stratosphere, with the Ethiopian and Eritrean teams lacking the quality or known quantity of the Kenyan team. That’s not to dismiss their chances, marathons — and championship races especially — do not follow a form book. However it would take all three Kenyan women having a bad day to bring others in to contention, so instead here’s some fun people to watch out for.
A personal favourite of mine as she does a weekly podcast, is completely down to earth (returned home to the Melbourne area between rounds of heat training to see her dog), has said on the podcast that if she top-10s she’ll do the flat earth salute as she crosses the line… Ellie Pashley (Australia).
Alaphine Tuliamuk — had a baby when the Olympic games were delayed a year, and seems to have returned to form. Ran a smart race at the US Olympic Marathon trials on a hard course.
Molly Seidel — great on socials, all her training is on Strava, which is cool to see in an age of secrecy arround professional training.
Men
The big question; was the King dethroned in London last autumn, or was it just a bad day?
If Eluid Kipchoge (Kenya (2:01:39)) is back to his normal form, he walks this. He got the job done in heat and humidity last time out in Rio. The cold and wet potentially hampered his race in London, and since in his brief appearances he’s seemed in form.
There’s loads of guys that could take his crown, however.
Lawrence Cherono (Kenya) 2:03:04 — turns up big in big races.
Amos Kipruto (Kenya) 2:03:30
Shura Kitata (Ethiopia) 2:04:49 — won London 2020, PR set at a hot London in 2018, again good at majors rather than the pan-flat shootouts in the middle east.
Suguru Osako (Japan) 2:05:29 — should stick around with the leaders for a long time if it’s his day, maybe home soil spurs him to victory.
Shogo Nakamura & Yuma Hattori (Japan) — purely because they will absolutely run their balls off, with a good chance of not finishing. They’re bringing the fireworks.
Bashir Abdi (Belgium (shoutout Belgium!)) 2:04:49
Calum Hawkins (GB) 2:08:14 — Ran himself into oblivion in the heat at the 2018 Commonwealth games, regularly turns up near the front in championship races. However he may have been injured in the build up to the Olympics.
Keep an eye out on the 2:10–2:15 (weather dependent) battles, the Aussies vs Brits should be electric, and the US lads might be in that same group.
Whilst the weather conditions are not set in stone yet, expect it to be warm, especially in the final 40–60 minutes of the race. Fueling becomes even more essential for all the competitors — so watch out for runners around water stations, a big indicator that Kipchoge was having a bad day at London 2020 was that he decided not to take on any nutrition or water for a long period of time. Any athletes that aren’t regularly taking a drink and/or a gel will quickly end up in a bad situation.
I’ve mentioned it in regard to the men, but the Japanese runners in both fields will for sure make themselves known. The Japanese approach to the marathon is fascinating, and a lot of countries could learn a few things about producing incredible depth in the event. Here’s a fantastic piece on Podium Runner discussing how and why Japan can produce results like 42 men running sub-2:10 at this years Lake Biwa marathon.
Specifically relating this to the Olympic marathon is the intentional decision by Japanese running authorities that their domestic marathons will all be paced at 3:00/km — 2:06 pace. Runners then have to hang on as long as possible, 2:06 paced marathons become the standard everyone shoots for. On Sunday morning we’ll therefore have three Japanese runners that are well-versed in running 2:06 pace, and born from a system that asks its runners to settle in to a pack and hold on. Maybe we can see a Japanese runner there in the final selection this weekend?
Championship races are hard to call, tactics come in to play when the best runners in the field can’t dictate the pace for the first 21km. On the other hand, both Kipchoge and Kosgei have proven on multiple occassions that they stand clearly above the rest of the field.
